India's Covid-19 Crisis: How We Got Here And What Happens Next

“There’s almost a panic in India,” Dr Pradeep Taneja explains on the Morning Brief. 

More than 20 million COVID-19 cases, over 200,000 deaths, drug and oxygen shortages, overpacked crematoriums—the COVID-19 crisis in India is reaching a breaking point. So how did it get this bad, and in the pharmacy of the world, no less? And what are some of the potential consequences? 

Dr Taneja, senior lecturer in Asian Studies at the University of Melbourne, shares the causes and consequences of this crisis. 

MAIN CAUSES

> Public complacency

India actually fared relatively well last year. In July the country reached 1 million COVID-19 cases with around 25,000 deaths. Compare that to countries like the US and Brazil, which reached the same milestone with nearly 50,000 fatalities. And despite a spike in September that saw new daily cases exceeding 90,000, that number had fallen to less than 10,000 by February this year. 

But things took a turn for the worse when - much like the rest of the world - pandemic fatigue took hold, and SOP compliance became lax. People gathered in large social settings, contributing to increased transmission rates. Consequently, higher infections gave rise to more potentially harmful coronavirus variants, such as B.1.617.

As Dr Taneja put it: “A complacency set in, a lot of people felt that ‘okay, this is almost over, we’ve overcome it’, and compared to other countries, India’s fatality rate was relatively low.” 

> Challenges to mass vaccinations

Only 9.4% of the population has received at least one vaccine dose, and  Dr Taneja thinks the mass vaccination rollout is too slow. He attributes this to the huge logistical challenges in developing capacity to vaccinate at a faster rate. This includes training enough healthcare workers, and setting up ample space to safely inoculate citizens. 

Vaccine hesitancy has also contributed to delays. AstraZeneca comprises a huge bulk of India’s supply, and concerns over the vaccine’s rare side effect of blood clotting are dissuading many from getting a jab. Separately, large swathes of the population are opting for traditional forms of medicine to protect themselves, in place of inoculation.

CONSEQUENCES

> Economic progress derailed?

Though it’s too early to tell in hard numbers, the current spike in COVID-19 cases will significantly affect India’s economy. Many of the highest transmission rates have occurred in India’s industrial and commercial hub, Maharashtra state, and this is expected to slow down business. Its capital, Mumbai, also depends on a large number of local migrant workers to support the city’s businesses, and many of them have left for their hometowns. 

On the whole, societal growth is in jeopardy. Last year alone, a Pew Research study found that 75 million people across India fell into poverty. That same study also reported that the middle class shrank by 32 million people.

> Teflon Prime Minister, no more

Narendra Modi has been labelled a “Teflon prime minister” for successfully deflecting criticisms over his failure to create new jobs, and his radical agenda to champion Hindu supremacy. But as the pandemic overwhelms India’s healthcare system, and the number of deaths rise, the BJP leader is quickly facing sustained public backlash. Politically, the cracks have started to show, as Modi’s party recently lost the crucial state election in West Bengal, which many see as a referendum on his handling of the pandemic. 

Written by Hezril Asyraaf and edited by Lee Chwi Lynn.  

To listen to the full conversation on the situation in India, check out the Morning Brief podcast below, which features Dr Pradeep Taneja, Senior Lecturer in Asian Studies at the University of Melbourne.